PALESTRANTE:
Karsten Kohler
FILIAÇÃO INSTITUCIONAL: University of Leeds.

RESUMO: The paper develops a small-scale 'analytical' heterogenous agent model (HAM) of concentration dynamics and their aggregate effects on distribution and growth. It contributes to recent attempts at building more tractable macroeconomic agent-based models (ABMs) by offering a comparison of two versions of the model: an ABM with bilateral matching of firms and customers on the goods market and a reduced-form HAM without direct interaction between agents. It is shown that the HAM produces similar results to the ABM, while admitting more precise analytical solutions. The model describes the interaction between investment and pricing decisions at the micro-level, and distribution and growth dynamics at the macro-level. Firms are heterogeneous with respect to their size and market shares. Bigger firms are able to lower their unit costs thanks to increasing returns, thereby capturing market shares. Higher market shares in turn lead to higher markups. Under certain conditions, these mechanisms give rise to endogenous changes in the size distribution of firms, as more profitable firms temporarily grow faster. As the firm-size distribution becomes more skewed, so does the distribution of market shares and markups. This leads to a divergence between the average profit share across firms and the aggregate profit share, whereby the aggregate profit share is driven up by the firms that dominate the market. The implied fall in the aggregate labour share depresses consumption demand and growth. Despite its simplicity, the model’s results thus reproduce some key stylized facts documented in the empirical literature on superstar firms and falling labour shares.

DATA: 28/04/2025
HORA: 16h40
SALA: 203

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